Analysis of economic changes in the steel industry and roll manufacturing industry since the new era

1.Analysis of changes in economic relations

The 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China held at the end of 2012 ushered in a new era of high-quality transformation of the national economy, and crude steel output exceeded one billion tons by 2022. With the tremendous development of the iron and steel industry, the roll manufacturing industry has also made great progress, as the main raw material from the steel products and directly serve the steel production of the roll manufacturing industry, there is an inseparable economic relationship between the two, this paper tries to analyze the operation trend through the changes of the two in the past ten years, think about the problem node to promote healthy development.In the past ten years, the roll manufacturing industry has also experienced three stages, first of all, look at the downward intersection in 2014, reflecting the downward trend with the steel situation and fall below the cost line with the steel industry situation slowly rebounded; In the middle of 2017, at the upward intersection, the demand side was affected by the large-scale new rolling mill with rolls, the demand was expanded, the supply-side environmental protection storm began, the largest roll supply source Xingtai stopped production and limited production, and then the roll enterprises in Tangshan limited production, and there was a supply gap, and the roll price retaliated to fill the gap in the rise of raw materials; In the later stage of 2019, the downward intersection, a new round of steel industry into structural adjustment, the market demand for rolls has decreased significantly, and the market demand for rolls has stabilized, but the roll manufacturing industry is affected by the expansion of Tangshan roll enterprises in the northeast, the structural expansion of Jiangsu roll enterprises and the completion of environmental protection management and production by Xingtai roll enterprises. Different from iron and steel enterprises, the fluctuation lag range is flat, when the steel industry shocks upward, the roll manufacturing industry can not follow the direction, only when the supply and demand are out of balance to clear the cost pressure, since the reform is basically this trend.

2. Comparison of relative prices of steel products and roll products

Commodity price comparison is in the same market, the same period between the price of different commodities between the proportional relationship, it is not a simple price ratio, but the ratio between the number of commodity exchanges, the price of rolls and pig iron reflects the ratio of the number of commodity exchanges between roll enterprises and iron and steel enterprises. The author has compared the phenomenon of rolls and iron and steel enterprises since the reform, the ratio of casting rolls and pig iron in 1980 during the transition period of the planned economy was 1:9.9 to 1:5.5 in 1993 and then 1:3.5 in 2012, and 1:2.8 in 2022, that is, 1 part of the roll can only be exchanged for 2.8 parts of pig iron. In the same period, the number of rolls exchanged for pig iron is getting smaller and smaller, and the situation of roll manufacturing enterprises in the sudden replacement of main raw materials is becoming more and more embarrassing.

3. Comparison of the economic benefits of typical listed steel and rolls and foundry enterprises

First, compared with the iron and steel enterprises, the scale of roll enterprises is relatively small, earnings per share is generally lower than that of iron and steel enterprises, economic benefits have lagged behind, and the same is a typical enterprise in the foundry industry compared with the sun and moon shares, his cast iron products account for 97% of the main business, 87% of the products flow to the wind power industry, benefiting from the rapid development of new energy earnings per share is significantly higher than the same foundry industry roll enterprises.

Second, from the sales gross profit margin of roll enterprises are much higher than iron and steel enterprises, but the net profit margin is generally much lower than that of iron and steel enterprises, gross profit margin determines the competitiveness of products, net profit margin reflects the company's management efficiency, in addition to the different types of enterprise scale, and casting enterprises have long product flow, low modernization efficiency, high capital cost is not unrelated.

Third, from the inventory turnover days to see the characteristics of the industry product determines the gap is huge, from the accounts receivable turnover days to see that iron and steel enterprises are generally in a week, even in the most difficult 2015 did not exceed 20 days, on the other hand, roll enterprises accounts receivable turnover days of 100 days is the norm, in the most difficult 2015 reached 300 days, the ability of iron and steel enterprises to occupy cash fully reflects the competitive position.

Based on the above data, the main raw materials of rolls such as pig iron come from iron and steel enterprises, and its products are also used in steel production. At present, with the increasing internal and external pressure on steel enterprises, the economic relationship between iron and steel enterprises and roll manufacturing enterprises will become more and more abnormal, which will seriously affect the development of roll manufacturing enterprises and will also affect iron and steel enterprises.